Foo

gap_validation/whittaker_compare.py

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+"""Whittaker S2 GCC (λ=400 d²) as a spatial constant vs withheld S2 GCC; crossover vs fusion nse_s2."""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+from pathlib import Path
+
+from metrics_stats import (
+    WHITTAKER_LAMBDA_DAYS_SQ,
+    _norm_date_key,
+    _s2_gcc_series_from_preselection,
+    _whittaker_smooth_dict,
+)
+
+
+def whittaker_gcc_on_gap_masked_series(
+    base: Path,
+    strategy: str,
+    prediction_iso: str,
+    withheld_iso: str,
+    lam: float = WHITTAKER_LAMBDA_DAYS_SQ,
+) -> float | None:
+    """Whittaker smooth on cloud-screened S2 GCC **excluding** the withheld acquisition day.
+
+    Comparator aligned with ``baseline.s2_whittaker_lambda400`` in ``metrics_stats`` (same λ,
+    same preselection GCC), but the withheld date is removed so the smoother does not see
+    the target acquisition. Value at ``prediction_iso`` (YYYY-MM-DD) is returned.
+    """
+    pred_k = _norm_date_key(prediction_iso)
+    wh_k = _norm_date_key(withheld_iso)
+    if not pred_k or not wh_k:
+        return None
+    all_gcc, flags = _s2_gcc_series_from_preselection(base)
+    if not all_gcc:
+        return None
+    idx = 0 if strategy == "aggressive" else 1
+    kept = sorted(
+        (d, g)
+        for d, g in all_gcc.items()
+        if d in flags and not flags[d][idx] and _norm_date_key(d) != wh_k
+    )
+    if len(kept) < 2:
+        return None
+    obs_d, obs_v = zip(*kept)
+    smooth = _whittaker_smooth_dict(obs_d, obs_v, lam)
+    return smooth.get(pred_k)
+
+
+def first_gap_where_fusion_below_whittaker(
+    rows: list[dict],
+    *,
+    fusion_key: str = "nse_s2",
+    whittaker_key: str = "nse_s2",
+) -> int | None:
+    """Smallest ``gap_days`` where fusion[metric] < whittaker[metric] (strict)."""
+    eligible = [
+        r
+        for r in rows
+        if r.get(fusion_key) is not None and r.get(whittaker_key) is not None
+    ]
+    eligible.sort(key=lambda r: r["gap_days"])
+    for r in eligible:
+        if r[fusion_key] < r[whittaker_key]:
+            return int(r["gap_days"])
+    return None